Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia’s agricultural land under global change

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Bryan, Brett; Nolan, Martin; Harwood, Tom; Connor, Jeff; Navarro Garcia, Javier; King, Darran; Summers, David; Newth, David; Cai, Yiyong; Grigg, Nicky ORCID ID icon; Harman, Ian ORCID ID icon; Crossman, Neville; Grundy, Mike; Finnigan, John; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen ORCID ID icon; Wilson, Kerrie; Law, Elizabeth; Hatfield-Dodds, Steve


2014-09-01


Journal Article


Global Environmental Change


28


-


-


15


The ability of new markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Profit functions were used to calculate economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to agricultural productivity and land use change adoption hurdle rates was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO2-1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO2-1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 – 189 MtCO2 yr-1. Biodiversity services of 3.32 % of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can increase the supply of carbon sequestration services from agricultural land but will not supply much additional biodiversity services unless complemented with a targeted biodiversity payment. While a biodiversity payment can increase the supply of biodiversity services, it will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results are sensitive to global drivers such as the carbon price, land use change adoption hurdle rate, and agricultural productivity.


Elsevier


Global change, conservation planning, ecosystem services, climate change, trade-offs, carbon sequestration, reforestation


Environmental Management


https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.013


Link to Publisher's Version


EP1310742


Journal article - Refereed


English


Bryan, Brett; Nolan, Martin; Harwood, Tom; Connor, Jeff; Navarro Garcia, Javier; King, Darran; Summers, David; Newth, David; Cai, Yiyong; Grigg, Nicky; Harman, Ian; Crossman, Neville; Grundy, Mike; Finnigan, John; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen; Wilson, Kerrie; Law, Elizabeth; Hatfield-Dodds, Steve. Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia’s agricultural land under global change. Global Environmental Change. 2014; 28(- -):15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.013



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