Uncertainty and uncertainty analysis methods

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Hayes, Keith ORCID ID icon




This report reviews uncertainty and uncertainty analysis methods in risk assessment, with a specific focus on issues related to import risk assessment. The report is motivated by the availability of qualitative and quantitative methods for import risk assessment. It examines how the challenges posed by uncertainty influence choices between these two approaches. The project’s terms of reference are to summarise and categorise the different sources of uncertainty in risk assessment problems, and review the practicality and applicability of a range of treatment methods. The report is intended for scientists and managers involved in, or contemplating the use of, qualitative or quantitative risk assessment. Whilst the report focusses on import risk assessment, readers from other application domains will find that much of the information and analysis presented here is relevant to them.


Applied Statistics


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This report has been placed on the CSIRO repository and may be made available to persons outside of CSIRO for non commercial purposes, in its entirety and without deletion of disclaimers and copyright information.


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Hayes, Keith. Uncertainty and uncertainty analysis methods. CSIRO; 2011. csiro:EP102467. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/585189e5f2360

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