Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications
Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva
;
Bell, Johann;
Bustamante, Rodrigo;
Dambacher, Jeffrey;
Dennis, Darren;
Dichmont, Cathy;
Dutra, Leo;
Fulton, Beth;
Hobday, Alistair;
van Putten, Ingrid;
Smith, Franz;
Smith, Tony;
Zhou, Shijie
2011-09-05
Journal Article
Marine and Freshwater Research
62
9
1132-1147
Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines, and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them; adaptive management loops may be one solution that deserves more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for giving us an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to simulate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of their natural resources. Non-linearities confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses should be robust to surprises. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from “end-to-end” and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to change. Lessons from this region can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources world-wide.
CSIRO Publishing
adaptive management; climate change; socio-economics; ecosystem models; Australian fisheries; Pacific Island countries and territories; qualitative models; end-to-end models
Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
https://doi.org/10.1071/MF10279
© 2011 CSIRO
EP105928
Journal article - Refereed
English
Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie. Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research. 2011; 62(9):1132-1147.https://doi.org/10.1071/MF10279
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