Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

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Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie

Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie


2011-09-05


Journal Article


Marine and Freshwater Research


62


9


1132-1147


Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines, and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them; adaptive management loops may be one solution that deserves more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for giving us an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to simulate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of their natural resources. Non-linearities confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses should be robust to surprises. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from “end-to-end” and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to change. Lessons from this region can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources world-wide.


CSIRO Publishing


adaptive management; climate change; socio-economics; ecosystem models; Australian fisheries; Pacific Island countries and territories; qualitative models; end-to-end models


Ecological Impacts of Climate Change


Link to Publisher's Version


© 2011 CSIRO


EP105928


Journal article - Refereed


English


Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie. Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research. 2011; 62(9):1132-1147.



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