Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications

Author:

Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie

Date of Publication:

2011-09-05

Publication Type:

Journal Article

Journal Title:

Marine and Freshwater Research

Volume:

62

Issue:

9

Pages:

1132-1147

Abstract:

Climate change presents significant challenges to modelling and managing aquatic resources. Equilibrium assumptions common in many modelling approaches need to be replaced by formulations that allow for changing baselines, and integration of ongoing changes and adaptations by species, ecosystems and humans. As ecosystems change, so will the ways humans use, monitor and manage them; adaptive management loops may be one solution that deserves more prominence in the management toolbox. Models are critical tools for giving us an early understanding of the challenges to be faced by integrating observations and examining possible solutions. We review modelling tools currently available to simulate the effect of climate change on marine and freshwater ecosystems, and the implications for management of their natural resources. Non-linearities confound interpretations and hence adaptive management responses should be robust to surprises. An improvement in the ability to model the effects of climate change from a social and economic perspective is necessary. The outputs from “end-to-end” and socio-ecological models can potentially inform planning, in both Australia and the Pacific region, about how best to build resilience to change. Lessons from this region can guide increased use of models to test options for managing aquatic resources world-wide.

Publisher:

CSIRO Publishing

Keywords:

adaptive management; climate change; socio-economics; ecosystem models; Australian fisheries; Pacific Island countries and territories; qualitative models; end-to-end models

Field Of Research:

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

URL:

Link to Publisher's Version

Rights Notice:

© 2011 CSIRO

Identifier:

EP105928

Publication Sub Type:

Journal article - Refereed

Language:

English

Attribution Statement:

Plaganyi-Lloyd, Eva; Bell, Johann; Bustamante, Rodrigo; Dambacher, Jeffrey; Dennis, Darren; Dichmont, Cathy; Dutra, Leo; Fulton, Beth; Hobday, Alistair; van Putten, Ingrid; Smith, Franz; Smith, Tony; Zhou, Shijie. Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research. 2011; 62(9):1132-1147.