Integrated assessment of future water security: the case of Makassar, Indonesia

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Neumann, Luis; Tjandraatmadja, Grace; Kirono, Dewi; Selitung, Mary

Neumann, Luis; Tjandraatmadja, Grace; Kirono, Dewi; Selitung, Mary


2013-12-06


Conference Material


MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide, 1-5 December 2013


2269–2275


Piantadosi J, Anderssen RS and Boland J


In many urban areas, population growth and changes associated with climate change are likely to increase pressure on water resources. One such location is Makassar City, located in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, which is experiencing rapid growth, urban sprawling and increase in freshwater demand but faces a possible reduction in water availability due to climate change. A study, as part of the CSIRO-AusAID Research for Development Alliance, has used a combination of climate change, hydrological and resource allocation modelling and a series of workshops to examine the resilience of planned infrastructure to climate change impacts. Rainfall and potential evapotranspiration from 5 different GCM were statistically downscaled using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, CCAM (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The downscaled rainfall and potential evapotranspiration were used in a hydrological model to estimate changes in streamflow for the two rivers which supply Makassar City, the Maros and Jennebarang. As shown in Figure 1 (right), although the CCAM projections show a reasonable variation for the projections of streamflow for both the Maros and Jennebarang catchments, all CCAM based projections of future streamflow agree on a reduction compared to historical records. The future predictions of streamflow indicate a reduction of mean annual streamflow in the order of 0-25 %, with reductions in the mean wet season flow of the same order when compared to the period 1980-1999. The reductions in streamflow for the dry season are projected to be between 5-35%. The estimated streamflows were used with existing plans for infrastructure development and population projections to assess future scenarios for bulk water supply and demand capacity for Makassar City, using the REsource ALlocation Model (REALM) software. Future water service options for Makassar were developed in conjunction with local policymakers and urban managers. Results indicate that under the assumed scenarios sufficient inflow for urban water allocation alone will be available during the wet season. However, during the dry season urban Makassar is likely to face supply problems due to reduction in streamflows but mainly due to infrastructure constraints, population growth and other water uses such as irrigation. The analysis suggests that the future water security in Makassar will depend more on its ability to manage infrastructure condition then on streamflows changes due to climate change.


Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand


Environmental Engineering Modelling


http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/


Link to Publisher's Version


Copyright © 2013 The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc. All rights reserved.


EP137308


Conference Paper - Refereed


English


9780987214331


Neumann, Luis; Tjandraatmadja, Grace; Kirono, Dewi; Selitung, Mary. Integrated assessment of future water security: the case of Makassar, Indonesia. In: Piantadosi J, Anderssen RS and Boland J, editor/s. MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation; 1-5 December 2013; Adelaide. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand; 2013. 2269–2275.



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