High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam: Technical Report

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Katzfey, Jack; McGregor, John; Ramasamy, Suppiah

Katzfey, Jack; McGregor, John; Ramasamy, Suppiah


2014-12-23


Report


266


Climate change has been recognized as one of the greatest challenges of the 21st Century. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated the projected increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 is likely be in the ranges derived from the concentration-driven CMIP5 model simulations, that is, 0.3°C to 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C (RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5).This is likely to be associated with changes to weather patterns and sea-level rise, which will impact on ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, fisheries, industries, urban and rural settlements, energy usage, tourism and health. During the past 50 years, average temperatures have risen by approximately 0.5 to 0.7°C and sea levels have increased by 20 cm within Vietnam (MONRE, 2009). The government of Vietnam is deeply concerned about the consequences of climate change and is committing considerable efforts to better understand these impacts. As part of this, they have introduced the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, which requires the development and update of climate change scenarios to provide a basis for impact assessment by ministries, sectors, cities and provinces. In 2009, climate change and sea-level rise scenarios were developed for the whole of Vietnam. A further update of these scenarios is expected by 2015 (MONRE, 2009). A key priority identified by stakeholders was the need to better understand the likely effects of climate change at the local level, since most of the impacts occur at this scale. More localised climate change projections will help identify the people and sectors at risk, and in doing so, will support Vietnam in the challenging task of prioritising its climate change responses. To address this gap, Australia’s Agency for International Development (under the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, DFAT) has supported the High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam project discussed in this report to help refine Vietnam’s climate change projections. The project will provide crucial inputs into the next update of the Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Vietnam by providing more detailed climate change projections at 10 km resolution across Vietnam. The project was funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) under its Research for Development Alliance with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Delivery partners were the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and the Hanoi University of Science – Vietnam National University (HUS) in Vietnam and CSIRO in Australia. This publication is the final volume in a series of High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam reports. It contains full details of our approach, results and analysis, targeted towards a more technical audience. Part 1 describes the methods used to produce the climate simulations for Vietnam, while Part 2 contains detailed analyses of the projections for seven sub-regions of Vietnam. Other available reports associated with the project are:  Summary for Policy Makers, developed for the purpose of communicating the climate projection information to a more general audience  Regional Brochures, which present climate projections for each of the seven regions in Vietnam.


CSIRO


http://www.hpsc.csiro.au/users


Climate Change Processes


Link to Publisher's Version


EP144686


Technical Report (Author)


English


Katzfey, Jack; McGregor, John; Ramasamy, Suppiah. High-resolution Climate Projections for Vietnam: Technical Report. http://www.hpsc.csiro.au/users: CSIRO; 2014. csiro:EP144686.



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