Australia-Indonesia Centre Megatrends: Health.

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Bohensky, Erin; Carter, Lucy ORCID ID icon; Meharg, Seona; Butler, James; McEachern, Steve; Hajkowicz, Stefan ORCID ID icon




In spite of their close proximity and their sharing of an international maritime border, Indonesia and Australia are very different nations. Geographically, politically, culturally and economically they bear some similarities, but also some stark differences. As well as presenting results of the Australia Indonesia Centre Foresighting Project’s megatrend analysis, this report summarises some of the key characteristics of the two nations and their connections. Nonetheless, both nations are located in the Asian economic region which is transforming rapidly, thus presenting opportunities and necessities for greater collaboration on shared issues. CSIRO was invited by the AIC to assist with the Cluster planning process by applying its ‘foresighting’ approach, which can analyse key trends in each theme towards 2030 and beyond. For health, seven broad shared issues were identified: quality of health care, rapid change in HIV, access to health care, non-communicable diseases (NCD), infant and maternal mortality and morbidity, nutrition, and ageing population (see Table A). Five were identified as Category C or D. One issue, rapid change in HIV, was clearly identified as Category A and specific to Indonesia, while infant and maternal mortality and morbidity was considered Category A but also D. Potential megashocks varied between the issues, but the most frequently mentioned were a major health crisis (natural disasters, e.g. influenza, global pandemic), political changes, civil unrest (i.e. demand for accreditation), terror activity, climate change, HIV drug resistance, diversion of financial and personnel resources for health care, changes in Indonesia’s Sustainable Development Goals, free trade agreements and pension planning.



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Bohensky, Erin; Carter, Lucy; Meharg, Seona; Butler, James; McEachern, Steve; Hajkowicz, Stefan. Australia-Indonesia Centre Megatrends: Health.. Melbourne: CSIRO; 2015.

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