An integrated model of population – GDP – food – water development in Bangladesh

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Mainuddin, Mohammed ORCID ID icon; Kirby, Mac




In this note, we describe a model which simulates the development over many decades of the population growth, GDP growth, food demand, crop production (and trade), climate (and hence climate change) and water demand (both for irrigation and for urban use) in Bangladesh. The model comprises several sub-models dealing with the individual aspects of population growth, GDP growth, food demand, agricultural production (including main imports and exports), water availability, water use in irrigation and urban water use. While each sub-model is simple, combined they are complex. The use of the model is described via a demonstration which simulates the development of Bangladesh from 1975 to 2100. The input data and parameters are described in detail. The demonstration is not calibrated to fit the observed data optimally; in a complex model of this type there is unlikely to be a unique best-fit set of parameters. Rather, it is a plausible set of parameters. The demonstration simulates reasonably well a large number of different macro-level effects from population growth to GDP growth, from food demand to food production, from irrigation water demand to urban water demand. The model is suited to exploring the impact on water demand of a wide range of biophysical and policy strategies, including population policy, economic growth impacts, food and agricultural policies, regional crop distribution, climate change, and urban population growth.



Agriculture, land and farm management

Bangladesh PGFW model description Final.docx (vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document) (1.18MB)

This report has been placed on the CSIRO repository any may be made available to persons outside of CSIRO for non commercial purposes, in its entirety and without deletion of disclaimers and copyright information.


Technical Report (Author)


Mainuddin, Mohammed; Kirby, Mac. An integrated model of population – GDP – food – water development in Bangladesh. CSIRO: CSIRO; 2022. csiro:EP2022-0733.

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