Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework - applications in the water sector

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Ekstrom, Marie; Kuruppu, Natasha; Wilby, Robert; Fowler, Hayley; Chiew, Francis ORCID ID icon; Dessai, Suraje; Young, Bill


2013-02-01


Journal Article


Global Environmental Change


23


1


115-129


Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.


Elsevier Ltd


climate change; adaptation; uncertainties; policy; water resources; climate risk; Water for a Healthy Country Flagship


Environmental Impact Assessment


https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003


Link to Publisher's Version


Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


EP113207


Journal article - Refereed


English


Ekstrom, Marie; Kuruppu, Natasha; Wilby, Robert; Fowler, Hayley; Chiew, Francis; Dessai, Suraje; Young, Bill. Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework - applications in the water sector. Global Environmental Change. 2013; 23(1):115-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003



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