Final Report: IVth International Pest Risk Modelling Workshop

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Kriticos, Darren ORCID ID icon



48 pp.

The IVth International Pest Risk Modelling Workshop was held in Port Douglas 23-25 August 2010. This annual event brought together an international panel of 30 scientists and stakeholders to develop collaborative research projects and to report on progress. The focus of this informal group is to improve the methods by which we can assess pest risks and to communicate these risks more effectively to biosecurity, production and natural resource sector stakeholders so that the risks can be better managed. Pest risk maps can help in the formulation of appropriate border biosecurity policies and procedures, and the development of industry biosecurity plans. The modelling and analytical techniques being developed by members of the International Pest Risk Modelling Workgroup can also inform the management of incursions by unwanted organisms, including those that threaten horticulture. At this year's meeting, the workgroup developed a structured outline for a practitioner's guide to pest risk modelling and mapping. This multi-authored guide will act as a resource for both risk assessors and stakeholders wishing to gain a better appreciation of the meaning and limitations of pest risk assessment tools. It is intended that it will be drafted by the end of June 2011. A clear benefit of the pest risk modelling workshops is that the case studies used by participants are frequently generally applicable. For example, the modelling work on the potential distribution of the peach fruit fly (Bactrocera zonata) conducted in China can be used to generate global risk maps, allowing biosecurity agencies elsewhere to understand the risks posed to their jurisdictions. This mutual sharing of effort at these workshops is highly cost-effective. Reliable pest risk models frequently involve a significant amount of research effort (AUD$20,000-50,000), compared with approximately AUD$1,000-3,000 to apply the model to a new jurisdiction and report on the results. Knowledge shared during this workshop will be used in a CRC for National Plant Biosecurity project (Communicating Uncertainty in Biosecurity for Agriculture). This project involves Apple and Pear Australia Limited and the Banana Growers Council of Australia. These case study industries will be used to improve techniques for communicating uncertainty around pest risks to stakeholders.


CLIMEX; International Pest Risk

Ecology not elsewhere classified

Link to Publisher's Version

This report has been placed on the CSIRO repository and may be made available to persons outside of CSIRO for non commercial purposes, in its entirety and without deletion of disclaimers and copyright information.



Client Report (Author)


Kriticos, Darren. Final Report: IVth International Pest Risk Modelling Workshop. CSIRO; 2010.

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