Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly

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Dutta, Ritaban; Das, Aruneema; Aryal, Jagannath


2016-02-10


Journal Article


Royal Society Open Science


3


2


150241


Article no 150241


Increasing Australian bush-fire frequencies over last eight years indicate a major climatic change in coming future. Understanding such climatic change for Australian bush-fire is limited and there is an urgent need of scientific research, which is capable enough to contribute to the Australian society. Frequency of bush-fire carries information on spatial, temporal and climatic aspects of bush-fire events and provides contextual information to model various climate data for accurately predicting future bush-fires hot spots. In this study, we develop an ensemble method based on two-layered machine learning model to establish relationship between fire incidence and climatic data. In a 336 weeklong data trial we demonstrate that the model provides highly accurate bush-fire incidence hot-spot estimation (91% global accuracy) from the weekly climatic surfaces. Our analysis also indicate that Australian weekly bush-fire frequencies increased by 40% over last five years, particularly during summer months, implicating a serious climatic shift.


Royal Society Publishing


Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified


https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150241


EP143750


Journal article - Refereed


English


Dutta, Ritaban; Das, Aruneema; Aryal, Jagannath. Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly. Royal Society Open Science. 2016; 3(2 150241):Article no 150241. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150241" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150241</a>



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