Risk Assessment for Controlling Mosquito Vectors with Engineered Nucleases, Part I: Sterile Male Construct\\ Record of expert elicitation

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Hayes, Keith; Barry, Simon; Beebe, Nigel; Dambacher, Jeffrey; De Barro, Paul; Ford, Jessica; Foster, Scott; Hosack, Geoff; Peel, David; Thresher, Ron; Ferson, Scott; Goncalves da Silva, Anders


2015-05-20


Report


736


In February 2014, CSIRO was engaged by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) to conduct an independent assessment of the risks associated with an escape of mosquitoes genetically modified to be male-sterile by a construct that incorporates the I-PpoI Homing Endonuclease Gene (HEG). The risk assessment was completed by using direct elicitation with domain experts to develop subjective prior probability distributions for key malaria transmission parameters, and basic events within four fault trees. The elicitation was performed with 8 members of the Target Malaria consortium, and 16 external experts approached for independent opinions. In total 1068 subjective probability density functions and 67 constants were retained for subsequent analysis, together with 1588 comments, covering 352 and 544 basic events (and vectoral capacity parameters) respectively. After each elicitation the experts were given individual reports that provided a formal record of their elicitation. The reports documented the central credible intervals elicited from the experts, the 5th, 10th, 50th, 90th and 95th percentiles of the fitted distribution, together with the original basic event question and any comments made by the expert when addressing that basic event. Each expert was given an opportunity to amend either the central credible interval or their comments. This report provides a final complete record of the entire elicitation. It identifies and discusses basic events that exhibit substantial disagreement between experts, and provides a summary of all the recommendations that the experts made regarding additional analysis or experiments that could be completed to help calculate the probability of the basic event in question.


Biosecurity flagship


Hobart


Applied Statistics


Published Version (pdf) (2.92MB)


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EP153254


Client Report (Author)


English


Hayes, Keith; Barry, Simon; Beebe, Nigel; Dambacher, Jeffrey; De Barro, Paul; Ford, Jessica; Foster, Scott; Hosack, Geoff; Peel, David; Thresher, Ron; Ferson, Scott; Goncalves da Silva, Anders. Risk Assessment for Controlling Mosquito Vectors with Engineered Nucleases, Part I: Sterile Male Construct\\ Record of expert elicitation. Hobart: Biosecurity flagship; 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/92684?index=1



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