Assessing the ecological representativeness of Australia’s terrestrial National Reserve System: A community-level modelling approach

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Williams, Kristen ORCID ID icon; Harwood, Tom; Ferrier, Simon


2016-06-30


Report


100


The Department of the Environment has commissioned CSIRO to undertake an analysis of the relative levels of biodiversity protection (representativeness) within the National Reserve System (NRS), Australia’s network of protected areas, under current and future climates. This project was undertaken in three parts with specific deliverables set out below. 1. Assessment of the representativeness of the current terrestrial National Reserve System. This part provides an analysis of the relative and effective level of protection for biodiversity within the terrestrial National Reserve System. 2. Assessment of the representativeness of the National Reserve System under different climate scenarios. This part builds on part 1 to examine the effective ecological representativeness of the National Reserve System under alternative plausible climate change scenarios. A total of four climate change scenarios are examined comprising two emission scenarios and two climate change models for the change period 1990-2050. Two CMIP5 climate models—the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate produced by the Japanese research community (MIROC5) and the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)—were used to project ecological change by 2050 under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (using representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 Wm-2 radiative forcing which equate to approximately 1.4 and 2°C of global warming respectively by 2050). 3. Discussion on the potential application of the representativeness analysis to inform future decisions. This part reflects on the findings of parts 1 and 2, and considers what further work is needed to help identify gaps in representativeness and inform future decisions by government and other potential stakeholders.


CSIRO Land and Water


Canberra


Proportional Protection Representation Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling Community-level modelling National Reserve System Comprehensive, Adequate, Representative


Biogeography and Phylogeography; Bioinformatics; Community Ecology; Global Change Biology; Conservation and Biodiversity ; Ecological Impacts of Climate Change; Landscape Ecology; Applied Statistics


Published Version (pdf) (4.51MB)


https://doi.org/10.4225/08/585ac3382ff4b


This report has been placed on the CSIRO repository and may be made available to persons outside of CSIRO for non commercial purposes, in its entirety and without deletion of disclaimers and copyright information.


Funding Body NameProject/Grant ID
Australia. Department of the Environment1516-0207


Epublish Number


EP163634


Client Report (Author)


English


9781486307852


Williams, Kristen; Harwood, Tom; Ferrier, Simon. Assessing the ecological representativeness of Australia’s terrestrial National Reserve System: A community-level modelling approach. Canberra: CSIRO Land and Water; 2016. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/585ac3382ff4b



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