Characterizing and Modeling Popularity Evolution of User-generated Videos

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Borghol, Youmna; Mitra, Siddharth; Ardon, Sebastien; Carlsson, Niklas; Eager, Derek; Mahanti, Anirban


2011-10-18


Conference Material


IFIP PERFORMANCE 2011 (29th International Symposium on Computer Performance, Modeling, Measurements and Evaluation)


Amsterdam, The Netherlands


N/A


Popularity dynamics of user-generated videos available from video-sharing services such as YouTube are of interest for myriad purposes including design of content distribution, content storage, and advertisement systems. Studying these dynamics, however, is challenging because of the extremely large and rapidly growing number of videos available from these services. This paper studies popularity dynamics using a dataset that tracks the views to a sample of recently-uploaded YouTube videos over the first eight months of their lifetime. We find that initial or current popularity is not a reliable predictor of future popularity, as evidenced by: (a) the observed non-stationarity in the relative popularity of videos, (b) the large differences in when videos peak in their popularity, and (c) the oscillations seen in video popularity. Simple ``rich-get-richer" types of models for popularity evolution, where videos that have more views acquire additional views at a higher rate, do not explain these observations. We propose a new model that accurately captures the popularity dynamics of such a collection of videos, including key system measures such as hot-set churn statistics, and the evolution of the viewing-rate and total-views distributions over time.


YouTube, Video Sharing, User-generated Content, Workload Characterization, Modeling, Popularity, Lognormal distribution, Power Law


http://event.cwi.nl/performance2011/


NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in IFIP Performance 2011. The final version will appear in a special issue of the Performance Evaluation journal (Elsevier). Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication.


nicta:4406


Borghol, Youmna; Mitra, Siddharth; Ardon, Sebastien; Carlsson, Niklas; Eager, Derek; Mahanti, Anirban. Characterizing and Modeling Popularity Evolution of User-generated Videos.[Conference Material]. 2011-10-18. <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/102675?index=1" target="_blank">http://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/102675?index=1</a>



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